Polysilicon prices rise with "anti-cut-throat competition" quotes, auxiliary material prices bottom out and expected to rebound [SMM Weekly Review]

Polysilicon: This week, the price index for N-type polysilicon stood at 35.6 yuan/kg, with N-type recharging polysilicon priced at 36 yuan/kg and granular polysilicon at 34 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices have risen, with limited transactions this week primarily due to the influence of polysilicon producers' quotations. The self-regulation of enterprises, based on cost pricing, and the government's sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission on July 1st, which reiterated the need to "combat cut-throat competition" and regulate enterprises' low-price competition in accordance with laws and regulations, have also contributed to the market's growth. Currently, wafer producers have not yet widely accepted the quotations, and subsequent transactions remain to be seen.

Wafer: This week, the price of N-type 183 wafers ranged from 0.85-0.88 yuan/piece, 210R wafers from 0.98-1 yuan/piece, and 210 wafers from 1.18-1.2 yuan/piece. Wafer prices continue to weaken, with downstream price pressure still prevalent, leading to a subsequent price decline. Recent frequent industry meetings and the government's clear goal of combating cut-throat competition may provide some support for wafer prices as polysilicon quotations rebound.

Cell: For P-type cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells ranged from 0.265-0.27 yuan/W, a 5.96% decrease from early June. Domestic demand is minimal, with all orders being export orders. The industry's operating rate is extremely low, with producers starting and stopping production lines based on orders. For N-type cells, firstly, TOPCon high-efficiency solar cells: the transaction range for 183N is 0.225-0.23 yuan/W, for 210RN is 0.24-0.25 yuan/W, and for 210N is 0.24-0.25 yuan/W. Secondly, HJT solar cells: the mainstream quotation for HJT30% silver-coated copper (with 25% or higher efficiency) is 0.35-0.36 yuan/W, remaining stable recently.

Under the month-end destocking pressure, TOPCon solar cell prices have "slid down the slope," accelerating their decline to hit bottom. According to the latest data, the current average prices of 183N/210N/210RN have decreased by 0.007/0.008/0.012 yuan compared to last Thursday, with corresponding WoW declines of 3.0%/3.2%/4.6%, indicating a significant expansion in the downward trend. Currently, the inventory of export producers remains at around 10 days. Against the backdrop of high inventory pressure, cell producers continue to offer concessions to compete for increasingly scarce orders, further weakening their bargaining power. Due to differences in order structures and customer quality among enterprises, inventory pressures also vary. Driven by the price cuts of top-tier enterprises, some enterprises have chosen to follow suit due to internal and external factors, exacerbating the downward pressure on the market. It is expected that the downward risk in prices has not yet been fully released.

PV Module: This week, PV module prices have slightly decreased, with the price spread in the module market continuing to widen. Small and medium-sized manufacturers continue to lower module prices, but there are no orders or shipments. Major module producers have been fulfilling orders from the previous month, with few new orders. Recently, the price spread in centralized project execution prices has also continued to widen, resulting in a chaotic market price. The mainstream transaction prices for N-type 182mm centralized projects range from 0.642 to 0.657 yuan/W, and for N-type 210mm centralized projects from 0.657 to 0.672 yuan/W. The price for TOPCon distributed 182mm modules ranges from 0.666 to 0.679 yuan/W, and for distributed 210mm modules from 0.666 to 0.679 yuan/W. Recently, a meeting on combating cut-throat competition was held in Beijing, guiding enterprises to reduce and control production and break away from vicious price competition, which has promoted the later supply-demand balance in the industry chain. Module prices are expected to hit bottom and stabilize.

PV Glass: This week, quotations from PV glass enterprises have continued to decrease and have basically hit bottom. As of now, the mainstream quotation for domestic 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 10.7 yuan/m², with some enterprises reducing their quotations to 10.5 yuan/m². The mainstream quotation for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 18.5 yuan/m², and for 2.0mm back glass is 10.7 yuan/m². This week, domestic PV glass prices have continued to fall. New orders in July are mainly negotiated at market low prices, and enterprises still face high inventory pressure. A new round of production cuts has also begun in July. This week, a top-tier domestic enterprise in Anhui province cold-repaired 1,800 tons/day of capacity. Recently, another 750 tons/day of capacity in Anhui province is also scheduled for cold repair, and the number of blocked kilns in other regions has begun to increase, leading to a decline in industry operating rates. While the supply side is narrowing, recent demand performance has also been relatively weak. Module production remains low, resulting in a weak supply and demand situation in the overall market. It is expected that glass prices in July will still mainly fluctuate at lows.

High-Purity Quartz Sand: This week, domestic high-purity quartz sand quotations have begun to decrease. The current market quotations are as follows: inner layer sand at 60,000-67,000 yuan/ton, middle layer sand at 30,000-40,000 yuan/ton, and outer layer sand at 17,000-23,000 yuan/ton, with varying degrees of price decreases for each layer. This week, the spot order prices of domestic imported sand traders have temporarily remained stable. However, with the long-term contract prices about to be finalized, it is expected that subsequent spot order transactions will also decline. For domestically produced sand, due to the sluggish demand from the wafer side and the decline in crucible prices, influenced by both demand and downstream cost pressures, domestically produced sand prices have begun to fall recently. Additionally, the recent influx of some ore sources from India has slightly increased domestic production, increasing supply-side pressure compared to the previous period and further driving down sand prices.

EVA: This week, the price of PV-grade EVA ranges from 9,500 to 9,750 yuan/ton. The overall transaction atmosphere is relatively sluggish. On the demand side, module scheduled production in July has declined, and the operating rate of film enterprises is low, with demand falling short of expectations. On the supply side, some petrochemical enterprises have switched production for maintenance, resulting in a relatively tight overall supply of PV-grade EVA. Despite the weak supply and demand, the overall supply and demand of PV-grade EVA still present a tight balance. It is expected that PV-grade EVA prices will remain weak and stable in the near future.

Film: The mainstream price range for EVA film is 12,000-12,300 yuan/ton, and for EPE film is 13,000-13,200 yuan/ton. In July, the new order prices for film have weakened and declined. On the cost side, the price of PV-grade EVA remains low, providing weak cost support. On the demand side, module scheduled production has declined, resulting in weak demand. Under the dual squeeze of cost and demand, film prices in July are under pressure to decline.

POE: The domestic delivery-to-factory price of POE ranges from 11,000 to 14,000 yuan/ton. On the demand side, module scheduled production has declined, coupled with the low operating rate of film enterprises, resulting in demand falling short of expectations. In July, the new order prices for film have declined, and the narrowing price spread has forced the raw material side to offer concessions for shipments, putting pressure on POE prices to decline.

Terminal: This week, the procurement volume in the PV terminal market has shown a cooling trend. According to SMM statistics for the week, domestic enterprises won a total of 9 PV module projects, with a total procurement capacity of 211.68MW, a decrease of 192.41MW compared to last week. In terms of prices, the weighted average winning bid price this week was 0.778 yuan/W, with price distribution concentrated in the range of 0.69 to 1.24 yuan/W.
Key bid-winning information during the statistical period from June 23, 2025 to June 29, 2025:
1. In the section: Procurement of 2.6MW N-type BC Double-sided Double-glass PV Modules for Bajian Project in 2025 by Hebei Fengxing Power Sales Co., Ltd., LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. won the bid for 2.6MW of solar cell modules, with a specific price of 1.9526 million yuan, mainly N-type modules.
2. China Railway 16th Bureau Group Electrification Engineering Co., Ltd. won the bid for 11,208 N-type modules, with a total winning capacity of 5.98MW. The project name is: Publicity of Inquiry Procurement Results for PV Modules of China Railway 16th Bureau Electrification Company Fukuang PV Power Generation (Self-consumption and Surplus Electricity to Grid) Project Management Department.
3. In the "Publicity of Transaction Results for Procurement of PV Modules for the 150MW Agricultural-PV Complementary Project of Huadian (Yiyuan) New Energy Co., Ltd. by the Maintenance and Operation Company of Shandong Electric Power Construction No. 1 Engineering Co., Ltd. of PowerChina", the Maintenance and Operation Company of Shandong Electric Power Construction No. 1 Engineering Co., Ltd. of PowerChina won the bid for PV modules with a capacity of 150MW, with the specific price not yet disclosed.

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